## Guide to Negotiations

Depending on your playstyle (Trader or Fighter), you may either find yourself faced with a lot of negotiations, or only come across them rarely. They’re most commonly seen as one of two possible ways to either win a battle point in Guild Battlegrounds, or to advance through a node in Guide Expeditions, but they also crop up in daily, bonus, or event quests. So it’s worthwhile to know the best way to get through them, even if you’re a fighter at heart.

So, just to quickly skim over the basics…

So, just to quickly skim over the basics…

**THE BASICS:**

In a negotiation you’ll be faced with five people all wanting a particular resource, and it’s your job to work out – through the Power of Logic! – which resource they want, ‘cause the silly gits won’t just tell you. 😊

So instead, you have to choose a resource to offer them, pay it (yes, it will come out of your inventory and you’ll spend it), and they will then tell you one of three things:

At this point any person who has a Green will be taken off the board as complete, and any resource that came up as Red will be removed from you group of resources to choose from.

The easiest negotiation you’ll ever see will have two resources to choose from, coins and supplies. It’s impossible to flumph this one, as the game removes the ability to choose an option that you’ve already established that no one wants (i.e. has come up as Red). So if you choose all coins in your first guess, you won’t be able to choose anything but all supplies in your second guess, for the people who are still looking for their resource.

Similarly, you’re guaranteed to win any that have three options, because you have three rounds of choices. Start with all coins, then choose all supplies for the second round, and finally fill in any remaining gaps with the last type of resource.

If you have a productive Tavern earning a lot of Tavern Silver, there is a boost in the Tavern Shop tab called ‘Extra Turn’. It’s quite expensive, and only works for 15 minutes, but will give you an extra turn in Guild Expeditions (but not GBG), so you would then have four rounds instead of three. This means you’d be guaranteed to complete any negotiation that had four or less resources to choose from.

However, there comes a point where we move past the 3 and 4 resource options, and get into harder territory. So, we move on to…

So instead, you have to choose a resource to offer them, pay it (yes, it will come out of your inventory and you’ll spend it), and they will then tell you one of three things:

- Green: It’s exactly what they were looking for, you’ve made this person happy and don’t have to worry about them anymore.
- Yellow: It’s not what they were looking for, but they happen to know that at least one of their mates wants it.
- Red: It’s a terrible resource, why did you even offer it, no one wants it.

At this point any person who has a Green will be taken off the board as complete, and any resource that came up as Red will be removed from you group of resources to choose from.

The easiest negotiation you’ll ever see will have two resources to choose from, coins and supplies. It’s impossible to flumph this one, as the game removes the ability to choose an option that you’ve already established that no one wants (i.e. has come up as Red). So if you choose all coins in your first guess, you won’t be able to choose anything but all supplies in your second guess, for the people who are still looking for their resource.

Similarly, you’re guaranteed to win any that have three options, because you have three rounds of choices. Start with all coins, then choose all supplies for the second round, and finally fill in any remaining gaps with the last type of resource.

If you have a productive Tavern earning a lot of Tavern Silver, there is a boost in the Tavern Shop tab called ‘Extra Turn’. It’s quite expensive, and only works for 15 minutes, but will give you an extra turn in Guild Expeditions (but not GBG), so you would then have four rounds instead of three. This means you’d be guaranteed to complete any negotiation that had four or less resources to choose from.

However, there comes a point where we move past the 3 and 4 resource options, and get into harder territory. So, we move on to…

**BEYOND THE BASICS:**

As soon as we start getting five or more resources to choose from, there’s no way to guarantee we’re going to win. Partly it will come down to luck, but by using logic you can make sure you have the best chance possible to choose the right resources.

Here’s where examples come in to best illustrate some of the patterns whereby we can work out what goes where, and I’ll summarise it at the end.

First up, an example of what I mean when I say a negotiation is guaranteed. Here is a negotiation with four resources to choose from, but I’m using the Extra Turn boost from the Tavern, so I have four guesses.

Here are my options:

Here’s where examples come in to best illustrate some of the patterns whereby we can work out what goes where, and I’ll summarise it at the end.

First up, an example of what I mean when I say a negotiation is guaranteed. Here is a negotiation with four resources to choose from, but I’m using the Extra Turn boost from the Tavern, so I have four guesses.

Here are my options:

And my guesses:

You can see that I first chose all coins, of which two were green and three were red. Coins have now been removed from the options that I can use.

I then move on to supplies, of which one is green and two are red. Supplies are now no longer able to be chosen as a guess, because I know for sure that they’re not required.

Similarly, I then choose Limestone, because I have more of these than Ebony. One is needed, leaving me with one final space which *must* be Ebony because there are no more resources I can possibly choose from.

I could have done this in a different layout, there’s no physical way to lose this one if you have the same number of guesses as you have resources, but if I’d chosen to put Ebony first, I would have wasted four of the resource I have the least of. That’s why I always choose the resources that I have the most of first. I’d much rather waste a handful of Coins than I would four Ebony.

I then move on to supplies, of which one is green and two are red. Supplies are now no longer able to be chosen as a guess, because I know for sure that they’re not required.

Similarly, I then choose Limestone, because I have more of these than Ebony. One is needed, leaving me with one final space which *must* be Ebony because there are no more resources I can possibly choose from.

I could have done this in a different layout, there’s no physical way to lose this one if you have the same number of guesses as you have resources, but if I’d chosen to put Ebony first, I would have wasted four of the resource I have the least of. That’s why I always choose the resources that I have the most of first. I’d much rather waste a handful of Coins than I would four Ebony.

For the second example, we have 4 resources to choose from, but only three guesses.

Resource 1 is Jewelry, Resource 2 is Limestone, Resource 3 is Gold, and Resource 4 is Granite.

Note that the first two are from the Iron Age, whereas the latter two are from the Early Middle Ages. This is normal, you’ll need goods from both your current Age and the previous Age in both Guild Expeditions and Guild Battlegrounds, so may sure you have healthy stockpiles in both.

My first guess:

Note that the first two are from the Iron Age, whereas the latter two are from the Early Middle Ages. This is normal, you’ll need goods from both your current Age and the previous Age in both Guild Expeditions and Guild Battlegrounds, so may sure you have healthy stockpiles in both.

My first guess:

My approach to having four choices but only three guesses is to fill them all in from 1-4 in the order they came, and then to repeat the resource I have the most of in slot 5 – in this instance, I chose Gold.

This is because I know I’m going to need at least two of one of the resources, and at the moment it’s equal probability across all of them as to which one it is, so I may as well spend the resource I can afford the most of, rather than spending one I don’t have many of.

This is something you should get used to doing. If there’s ever a choice where it’s an equal probability to be one or the other, go with the one you have the most of. There’s no point in spending a more valuable resource when it doesn’t give you any benefit.

The result was:

This is because I know I’m going to need at least two of one of the resources, and at the moment it’s equal probability across all of them as to which one it is, so I may as well spend the resource I can afford the most of, rather than spending one I don’t have many of.

This is something you should get used to doing. If there’s ever a choice where it’s an equal probability to be one or the other, go with the one you have the most of. There’s no point in spending a more valuable resource when it doesn’t give you any benefit.

The result was:

This isn’t a great result, and doesn’t really tell me all that much, aside from Granite not being required. I still don’t know for sure whether two Golds are required or not.

My second guess:

My second guess:

I’ve chosen to double up on Gold again, covering 2 of the 3 slots that it could possibly be. I’ve specifically avoided putting it in slot 4, because I don’t want another red in there, so I’ve put a resource I know will either be yellow or green.

I’ve also doubled Jewelry, as it’s the one I have the most of, after Gold.

Tripling Gold would not be a good idea, even though it would guarantee that I got it in the right spot, because that would then leave me with less information about the remaining two resources – I wouldn’t know whether I’d need two Jewelry or two Limestone.

It comes down to it being a balancing act to try and learn as much about all the resources as possible, not just focusing on one.

The result was:

I’ve also doubled Jewelry, as it’s the one I have the most of, after Gold.

Tripling Gold would not be a good idea, even though it would guarantee that I got it in the right spot, because that would then leave me with less information about the remaining two resources – I wouldn’t know whether I’d need two Jewelry or two Limestone.

It comes down to it being a balancing act to try and learn as much about all the resources as possible, not just focusing on one.

The result was:

This is a very good result, and I now know for certain that I can complete this negotiation by the 3rd round.

Even though I haven’t seen a red for Gold, I can be absolutely sure that no more are needed. This is because there’s only one possible spot remaining for both it and Jewelry (slot 4), but I’m being told that Jewelry is still required, so it *must* go into slot 4.

Similarly, of the three possible resources remaining (Jewelry, Limestone, and Gold), slots 3 and 5 have already used Gold and Jewelry, so the only remaining possibility for both of them is to fill them with Limestone.

So this will be the correct layout:

Even though I haven’t seen a red for Gold, I can be absolutely sure that no more are needed. This is because there’s only one possible spot remaining for both it and Jewelry (slot 4), but I’m being told that Jewelry is still required, so it *must* go into slot 4.

Similarly, of the three possible resources remaining (Jewelry, Limestone, and Gold), slots 3 and 5 have already used Gold and Jewelry, so the only remaining possibility for both of them is to fill them with Limestone.

So this will be the correct layout:

Our next example is harder yet, with 5 resources to choose from, and only three guesses.

These are our options: Cloth, Ebony, Iron, Limestone, and Supplies.

These are our options: Cloth, Ebony, Iron, Limestone, and Supplies.

My first guess:

As there are five resources for five slots, I enter them in as they fall, as there’s no reason to order them from the most resource to the least.

The results:

The results:

This helps a bit, by telling me that Limestone isn’t needed, and that I hit the right spot with the Ebony. However, there’s a chance that Ebony is still required.

My second guess:

My second guess:

I’ve randomly placed the four possible resources into the four remaining slots. The only thing that does affect how I place them is to make sure that I put one of the resources that was yellow into slot 4. This is because there’s a chance Ebony isn’t required, and if that were the case and I had Ebony in slot 4, there would then be no information to help me guess what was needed in that slot. So by putting Iron there instead, I know that it’s either going to be yellow or green, both of which are useful in working out what to do next.

Always try to avoid getting two reds in any slot, as it makes it much harder if you have no information to go on.

The results:

Always try to avoid getting two reds in any slot, as it makes it much harder if you have no information to go on.

The results:

As I suspected, Ebony is no longer needed – if I’d put it in slot 4, I would have had two reds and it would have been much harder to work out where things needed to go.

But as things are, we can now work out with certainty where everything else goes:

Looking at Cloth, it can either go into slots 4 or 5. Just looking at it in isolation, there’s a 50% chance of guessing correctly. But I don’t want to guess, so maybe there’s some other way of working it out…

If you look at the other resources first, they can help add information that will get the whole thing solved, like a crossword.

Looking at the Iron, for example, you can see that it’s already been used in two of the three remaining slots, so it *must* be needed in slot 5. This then means that Cloth can only be entered into slot 4, meaning that the final remaining slot must be filled with Supplies.

This example shows that if you can definitively place one resource, it can help determine where the others go. So always do a quick run-down of all the resources to see if there are any ‘definites’, rather than just concentrating on putting the first in, then the second…

But as things are, we can now work out with certainty where everything else goes:

Looking at Cloth, it can either go into slots 4 or 5. Just looking at it in isolation, there’s a 50% chance of guessing correctly. But I don’t want to guess, so maybe there’s some other way of working it out…

If you look at the other resources first, they can help add information that will get the whole thing solved, like a crossword.

Looking at the Iron, for example, you can see that it’s already been used in two of the three remaining slots, so it *must* be needed in slot 5. This then means that Cloth can only be entered into slot 4, meaning that the final remaining slot must be filled with Supplies.

This example shows that if you can definitively place one resource, it can help determine where the others go. So always do a quick run-down of all the resources to see if there are any ‘definites’, rather than just concentrating on putting the first in, then the second…

Here’s an even more difficult example, with 6 resources to choose from and only three guesses.

These are the hardest ones you’ll see in Guild Battlegrounds, where the Extra Turn boost is not available, but the Guild Expeditions can get significantly harder in the final level.

My options:

These are the hardest ones you’ll see in Guild Battlegrounds, where the Extra Turn boost is not available, but the Guild Expeditions can get significantly harder in the final level.

My options:

Of these, you can see that I have the least Ebony and the most Gold, so I’ll be keeping that in mind as I make my choices.

My first guess:

My first guess:

In this instance, when there are more resources than there are slots, I always fill it in descending order of whichever resource I have the most of, so that the resource that’s left off is the one I have the least (Ebony, in this instance). This is purely so I don’t spend more Ebony than I have to, considering I don’t have much of it.

The result:

The result:

This helps, a little. I know that Jewelry and Limestone aren’t needed, but have no idea about Ebony. I also know that one of the four remaining will require two of that type of good, as there’s four resources and five slots – but at this point I have no idea which one it is.

My second guess:

My second guess:

I fill the first slot with Ebony, which I haven’t chosen before, rather than putting this resource into slots 4 or 5, because if it turns out to be red that would leave those slots with no indication of what resource is needed.

Even if it turns out to be red in slot 1, at least I know that Ebony isn’t needed, which may help me determine what should be there next round, but I’ll also have the previous result of knowing that Gold isn’t needed in that slot to help determine what should go there.

Slots 2, 3, and 4 are a repeat of slots 1, 2, and 3 in the first round, just shifted one position to the right. I keep them in the same order because I find it easier to then keep track of which resource has been used where, if there’s a pattern to it.

And finally, I’ve chosen a second Gold to go in slot 5 simply because it’s the resource I have the most of, so my default is to use the resource I can spare the most.

The results:

Even if it turns out to be red in slot 1, at least I know that Ebony isn’t needed, which may help me determine what should be there next round, but I’ll also have the previous result of knowing that Gold isn’t needed in that slot to help determine what should go there.

Slots 2, 3, and 4 are a repeat of slots 1, 2, and 3 in the first round, just shifted one position to the right. I keep them in the same order because I find it easier to then keep track of which resource has been used where, if there’s a pattern to it.

And finally, I’ve chosen a second Gold to go in slot 5 simply because it’s the resource I have the most of, so my default is to use the resource I can spare the most.

The results:

Looking at this, I now know with certainty that Gold belongs in slot 3, because it’s still yellow, but has been used already in slots 1 and 5, so slot 3 is the only one remaining.

This leaves slots 1 and 5 with two possible resources – Alabaster, which I know must be used at least once, and Honey, which I don’t know whether it’s needed again, but is still a possibility.

So, there’s no way I can be 100% certain what is needed in slots 1 and 5. I have three possible combinations that have equal likelihood of being correct:

This leaves slots 1 and 5 with two possible resources – Alabaster, which I know must be used at least once, and Honey, which I don’t know whether it’s needed again, but is still a possibility.

So, there’s no way I can be 100% certain what is needed in slots 1 and 5. I have three possible combinations that have equal likelihood of being correct:

Or

Or

I’m going to go with option 1 for two reasons.

Firstly, because with the information I have, I know that resource 6 is required at least once, but I don’t know that resource 5 is required. Secondly, I have more of resource 6 than I do of resource 5. So, while the above three options all have a 33.3% chance of being true, my information points more towards option 1, and it’s the option that costs me the least resources that I don’t have many of.

It’s not fool-proof, but at least you know that you’ve taken every logical step to find the most likely correct answer, and you’re using the least amount of the goods that you have the fewest of.

Firstly, because with the information I have, I know that resource 6 is required at least once, but I don’t know that resource 5 is required. Secondly, I have more of resource 6 than I do of resource 5. So, while the above three options all have a 33.3% chance of being true, my information points more towards option 1, and it’s the option that costs me the least resources that I don’t have many of.

It’s not fool-proof, but at least you know that you’ve taken every logical step to find the most likely correct answer, and you’re using the least amount of the goods that you have the fewest of.

Lastly, just a quick example to illustrate a specific point: It’s not always in your interest to immediately fill a slot with the correct good.

In the worst-case scenario for this, imagine you have five resources and three guesses. You choose one of each for your first guess and the first four are correct, leaving the last slot open. You now have two guesses remaining, and five resources that it could possibly be, but only ONE slot per guess. So your next guess has a 20% chance of being correct (1 in 5), and your final guess has a 25% chance of being correct (1 in 4).

These are not great odds, whereas if you had more slots to play with, you could probably have worked out which one was required.

But here’s an example to show why it can be beneficial to not fill in a ‘known’ slot.

My options:

In the worst-case scenario for this, imagine you have five resources and three guesses. You choose one of each for your first guess and the first four are correct, leaving the last slot open. You now have two guesses remaining, and five resources that it could possibly be, but only ONE slot per guess. So your next guess has a 20% chance of being correct (1 in 5), and your final guess has a 25% chance of being correct (1 in 4).

These are not great odds, whereas if you had more slots to play with, you could probably have worked out which one was required.

But here’s an example to show why it can be beneficial to not fill in a ‘known’ slot.

My options:

My first guess:

I can tell from this result that Honey *must* belong in slot 1. But I’ve got two guesses to go, and three other goods that all have a 33% chance of belonging in slot 4.

So if I put Honey in slot 1 immediately, I’ll have a 33% chance of guessing slot 4 right in the next guess, and then a 50% chance of guessing correctly in my final guess.

But, there’s a better way to do it.

My second guess:

So if I put Honey in slot 1 immediately, I’ll have a 33% chance of guessing slot 4 right in the next guess, and then a 50% chance of guessing correctly in my final guess.

But, there’s a better way to do it.

My second guess:

If I instead keep Honey to the side and choose two of the three remaining resources, I then give myself more options to work out which resource is the correct one.

As you can see from the above results, both options I chose were incorrect. This means that the last remaining resource, Granite, must be the correct one. And I already know that Honey belongs in slot 1, so I now have 100% certainty of finishing this negotiation, whereas if I’d filled in Honey pre-emptively, it would have been a 50% chance.

As you can see from the above results, both options I chose were incorrect. This means that the last remaining resource, Granite, must be the correct one. And I already know that Honey belongs in slot 1, so I now have 100% certainty of finishing this negotiation, whereas if I’d filled in Honey pre-emptively, it would have been a 50% chance.

Here’s a summary of the points made in the examples above:

And here's a video that comes recommended by Taniapdx:

- If there are only
**three**resources to choose from, start with all gold, then all supplies, and finally fill any remaining gaps with the remaining type of good. - If there are
**four**resources to choose from, and you can afford the Tavern Silver ‘Extra Turn’ boost, do the same as above – all gold, all supplies, all the good you have the most of, and finally the good you have the least of. - If there are
**five**resources to choose from, select one of each choice. (The order doesn’t matter, but I like to keep them in the order they came in as it’s less confusing). - If there are
**six**or more resources to choose from, start with gold and supplies, and then prioritise the goods that you have the most of – the good that you don’t check in the first round should be the one that you have the least of. - If you can work out where a resource is supposed to go, don’t put it in there until the final round – instead, keep using that space to work out where the other resources are supposed to go. The fewer spaces you have, the harder it is.
- There are three logical ways that you can work out where a resource is supposed to go. One is ‘Across’, one is ‘Down’, and one is through what you have remaining in your hand.
- The last one’s the easiest, because recently the game made an update so that obviously incorrect choices could not be selected, so if there’s only one resource in your hand that’s not greyed out, then that logically must be the correct one.
- ‘Across’ is worked out by looking at any other columns where that resource was used. If it was used in four other columns and is still yellow, then logically you know that the 5th column will be the correct one. If it’s in three other columns and still yellow, then you know you have a 50% chance of guessing the correct column from the two remaining.
- ‘Down’ is by comparing what’s already been guessed in the column against what you have remaining in your hand.

And here's a video that comes recommended by Taniapdx: